Crunch Time in Copenhagen

Week Two of the COP15 in Copenhagen opens with the arrival of over 110 ministers and soon their heads of state - i.e. crunch time for the negotiations. This is also leading to incredibly long lines at the entrance and limits to the number of NGO members being admitted.

With the arrival of high-level officials, there's increasing concern among civil society that officials may end up greenwashing the outcome, i.e. making pretty speeches even if a weak agreement is reached. The offsets loopholes in particular open up this possibility - see for instance, Australia's latest ambitions.

In the meantime, demonstrations both inside and outside of the Bella Center (home of COP15) continue, floating on the huge success of Saturday's immense (some say 100,000) demonstration through the beautiful but bitterly cold city of Copenhagen. 

The focus is on Climate Justice. Small Island States and Africa will suffer (and are suffering) the most from climate change, as are poor communities in the developed countries. The Alps are melting, the American West is drying, sea levels are rising, rivers and wetlands are dying (read more about impacts here). Yet, according to the NGO network's ECO Bulletin, it is the hardest hit that have the strongest proposals for cutting their emissions. A few examples include:

• The Maldives and Costa Rica have proposed going carbon neutral by 2020. 
• Brazil and Indonesia both exceed the IPCC recommended cuts on 1990 levels by 2020 for developing countries.
• South Africa and South Korea have both committed to dimishing emissions below their baseline within the IPCC recommended cuts.

The biggest stir last week was caused by Tuvalu and AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island States), who are demanding that the temperature increase should be limited to below 1.5°C and that countries stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 350 ppm at most. This stands in stark contrast with Annex I's offering, which aims for 2°C and 450 ppm. AOSIS is also calling for 45% cuts by developed countries on 1990 levels by 2020, which according to ECO, is basically "definining their right to survive above water." However, developed countries' pledges so far are no where near this amount, especially when offests are taken into account.

Civil society this week will be calling on ministers and heads of state from rich countries to (among other demands) raise their targets and close the offset loopholes. For those most vulnerable to climate change, including our rivers, our cultures, and the earth's biodiversity, these demands will be non-negotiable.