Crunching the Hydro Numbers: 2011 First Half CDM Update

By: 
Katy Yan
Status of projects for which International Rivers and partners have submitted Comments
Status of projects for which International Rivers and partners have submitted Comments
as of July 1, 2011

For many years, International Rivers and our partners have been submitting comments on the worst hydropower projects in the CDM pipeline, raising issues ranging from environmental problems to human rights abuses to additionality. Our general experience has usually been that rather than seriously assessing public comments, the validators, also known as DOEs, ignore any criticism of the project developers' claims. Recently, however, a number of these projects, for which we had raised serious concerns, have had their validation terminated by their DOEs. Could these DOEs finally be hearing what we've been saying for years? 

Unfortunately, it's almost impossible to know the answer, since the reasons for terminating a validation contract for a specific project is confidential and is communicated only to the CDM Executive Board. However, knowing that almost a third of all the projects upon which we and our partners have commented have had their validation terminated, and another third are still stuck in validation limbo are signs that these comments are making an impact. While the local struggle to stop many of these projects continue, at least they will no longer be rewarded with carbon credits.

To date, these projects (which have had their validations terminated or denied) include:

To learn more about submitting comments for a project in your country that is applying for credits under the CDM, see CDM-Watch's latest CDM Toolkit (in English, Spanish, Chinese), and International Rivers' CDM powerpoint presentation, Making Your Voice Heard (in English and Spanish).

Below is the regular CDM update on all hydropower projects in the CDM pipeline. This is an update for the first half of the year (1st and 2nd quarters).

Update:

  • The number of hydro projects that entered the CDM pipeline rose since the end of 2010, with an increasing number of small and medium-sized hydro projects (less than 50 MW).
  • The overall number of CDM projects rose significantly (see Figs. 1 and 2), especially in the wind sector (See Figure 6).
  • The percent of registered projects that were involved in the review process (see Fig. 4): 10% in 2005, 9% in 2006, 19% in 2007, 57% in 2008, 70% in 2009, 40% in 2010, and 15% in 2011 (as of July 1, 2011).
  • 64% of all hydro projects in the CDM pipeline have requested registration since 2004, while 61% of all hydro projects have actually been registered. Figs. 3 and 4 show the fate of projects requesting registration and being registered by year.
  • The largest number of hydropower projects were registered in 2010 (see Fig. 4).
  • Hydro projects continue to be the most prevalent type of project in the CDM pipeline (26% of all projects), with wind at a close second. 68% of credits expected from hydro projects come from China (see Fig. 5).
  • Credits expected to be generated by large hydro (≥15 MW) by 2012 represent 16% of all credits expected to be generated by 2012. Reduction of refrigerant gases like HFCs still represent the largest project type (over a quarter). The CDM Executive Board has suspended the HFC-23 methodology, due to the massive number of rip-offsets produced.

Click on the following graphs to see a larger version:

Fig. 1: Projects at Validation by Quarter
Fig. 1: Projects at Validation by Quarter
 
Fig. 2: Percentage of CDM projects at validation that are hydro
Fig. 2: Percentage of CDM projects at validation that are hydro
 
Fig. 3: Projects requesting registration by year
Fig. 3: Projects requesting registration by year
Fig. 4: Projects registered each year requiring a review or corrections
Fig. 4: Projects registered each year requiring a review or corrections
 
 
Fig. 5: Percent of total CERs for all hydro projects by country/region
Fig. 5: Percent of total CERs for all hydro projects by country/region
 
Fig. 6: CDM projects by type
Fig. 6: CDM projects by type
More information: 

You can receive weekly email updates of new CDM hydro projects entering the pipeline and download our monthly spreadsheet by visiting our CDM spreadsheet page. Data is based on the UNEP Risoe spreadsheet (July 1, 2011). Feel free to contact me about any of these calculations.