Crunching the Hydro Numbers 2009: Third Quarter Update on the CDM

Updates:

  • The number of projects that entered the CDM pipeline increased slightly from the second quarter, although it dropped 14% from the third quarter in 2008 (See Fig. 1).
  • The percent of hydropower projects entering the CDM pipeline relative to all CDM projects has been on a downward trend since 2007 (see Fig. 2).
  •  "An increasing number of registered projects, or even projects that have had their first monitoring report published, never materialise into CER generation." - Point Carbon analysts.
    The issuance of CERs has also dropped. According to the Sept 2nd issue of Point Carbon's CDM & JI Monitor (sub req'd), factors include the delay that projects experience going through the CDM pipeline, "uncertainty about the size and scope of the CDM after 2012," the number of projects flagged for review (as seen in Fig. 4), and the fact that some registered projects just "never materialize into CER generation." The recession, the recent DOE suspensions, and perhaps the recognition of the various problems that plague large hydro probably aren't helping developer confidence.
  • The percent of projects rejected out of the total number of projects requesting registration was 6.9% in 2007, 3.6% in 2008, and 1.8% in 2009 to date (this does not include withdrawn projects).
  • 49% of all hydro projects in the CDM pipeline have requested registration since 2004, while 39% have actually been registered. Figs. 3 and 4 show the fate of projects requesting registration and being registered by year. This graph shows the marked increase over last year of projects that the Executive Board has requested be reviewed.
  • Hydro projects in China continue to be the most prevalent CDM project in the pipeline. 

Click on the following graphs to see an enlargement:

Fig. 1: Projects entering the CDM pipeline
Fig. 1: Projects entering the CDM pipeline
 
Fig. 2: Percentage of all CDM that is Hydro
Fig. 2: Percentage of all CDM that is Hydro
 
 
Fig. 3: Projects requesting registration by year
Fig. 3: Projects requesting registration by year
 
Fig. 4: Percentages of registered projects each year that required a review or corrections
Fig. 4: Percentages of registered projects each year that required a review or corrections
 

Fig. 5: CDM Large Hydro Projects by Country/Region
Fig. 5: CDM Large Hydro Projects by Country/Region

 
Fig. 6: CDM Projects by Type
Fig. 6: CDM Projects by Type

You can receive weekly email updates of new CDM hydro projects entering the pipeline and download our monthly spreadsheet by visiting our CDM spreadsheet page. Data based on the UNEP Risoe spreadsheet (October 1, 2009). Feel free to contact me about any of these calculations.

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